You must think I must be some kind of lunatic for picking the completely playoff untested Thunder over the Lakers, in six games no less. Am I just saying this to get attention? No, only two people read my blog so I'm definitely not out to get any attention.
It became apparent to me that the Lakers are really out matched in this series. Bynum is not 100%, and while Gasol looked good in the last ten games, the Lakers went 4-6 down the stretch with a good Gasol.
We know Kobe is not feeling close to 100%. It's a shame because he could single handedly make the Lakers serious title contenders, but he's broken.
Do I think the Lakers will jump out to a 30-8 lead in the first quarter on Sunday at Staples? Absolutely. But the Thunder will come back and make it a game.
The Thunder are +8.5 underdogs in Game 1 and I feel pretty good about them covering their spreads the majority of games in this series. Even if they get swept, I see them going 3-1 against the spread.
The Thunder pick is largely based on the Lakers inability to guard younger, quicker teams. Let's face it, the Lakers are an old group of 30 year olds, not to mention 35 over the hiller Derek Fisher. It's going to be tough running around screens for 40 minutes chasing Durant, and Westbrook.
OKC forward Jeff Green is the classic tweener. Too small to be a true 4, but also too slow to be a true 3. Green is 3.5 and is only effective if he is hitting his threes or long twos. He's going to be guarded by Gasol, and Green will draw Gasol away from the paint, and away from defensive rebounds.
The Bynum vs. Krstic/Collison/Ibaka three headed monster is an interesting match-up. Bynum's agility coming back from injury will make a huge difference. When healthy, Bynym gets lob passes for easy twos at least four times a game.
But if you break down the other matchups, 1 through 3, it's a no brainer. I say the Kobe vs. Sefolosha matchup could very well turn into a draw. Sefolosha's defense is so good, he could get Kobe into a 6-21 shooting night. And forget about the Westbrook/Durant combo. The Lakers have nobody on their end to match up with those guys.
If Kobe was healthy, he should/would guard Durant in crunch time. With his ailing finger/knee/back/ankle injuries, he'll probably just stick to guarding Sefolosha and making at least two dangerous steal attempts that backfire and lead to easy OKC buckets.
Ron Ron is broken down. He's had 6 really good games all season, and the others have been blah. He might draw a key technical here and there to get into Durant's head, so I'll give him some credit for that.
We'll have to see how composed Durant turns out to be. He's obviously the key factor in this series. He might average a ridiculous 33 ppg in this series, and if he does, I really see the Thunder taking it against the Lakers.
Deep down, I think Phil is hurt by all the talk about his hefty 12 million a year deal with LA. To his credit, Phil has won championships under greater duress. I feel he might be taking OKC for granted, given his incredible resume, and his trust in veteran players.
Twenty years ago, nobody knew about Phil Jackson outside of Chicago. OKC coach Scott Brooks might have a shot at Phil's ten rings if he keeps his job in OKC. Not saying Brooks is going to win all ten in OKC, let's get real, but I'm just saying he has a shot to get more than three if he is truly a great coach.
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